Campaign context
Experimental
Experimental. This page is experimental. It gathers public dates and a few news topics we keep an eye on. It holds no poll figure and no probability.
Calendar
The dates around the election, each with its source.
- 1 Jul 2026 The Council of Ministers called the election. Source : info.gouv.fr
- 7 Jul 2026 Decision of the Paris court of appeal in the Marine Le Pen case: 45 months of ineligibility, 30 of them suspended. She remains eligible to stand in 2027. An appeal to the Court of Cassation is possible; the date of its ruling is unknown (sources disagree). Source : La Libre · Bluewin
- 12 Mar 2027 Last day to register on the electoral rolls. Source : info.gouv.fr
- 18 Apr 2027 First round. Source : info.gouv.fr · Public Sénat
- 2 May 2027 Second round. Source : info.gouv.fr · Public Sénat
What we watch but do not count
Four news topics. For each, a plain hypothesis about why it might matter to voters. We state nothing about its effect.
The war in Ukraine and Europe's defence
Why it might matter. Security might weigh on the choice of some voters.
The Middle East
Why it might matter. Events in the region might shape public debate and where voters look.
US–EU trade tariffs
Why it might matter. Trade questions might matter to voters who care about jobs or industry.
Energy and prices
Why it might matter. The cost of living might weigh on the choice of those who feel it every day.
Background: geopolitics and prices
Experimental
Two public weekly series since January 2022: a world geopolitical-risk index and fuel prices in France.
What this does not mean. The index is worldwide, not French; it says nothing about any candidate and is not part of the probability of winning. A link with the polls is not shown: we are testing it. See the Validation page
Geopolitical risk index (world), weekly mean
Fuel prices in France, taxes included (EUR per litre)
- Diesel
- Super 95
Source : European Commission, Weekly Oil Bulletin (prices per 1,000 l, divided by 1,000 here)
Neither source states an open licence: used for internal research, raw files are not redistributed; the latest index values are preliminary.
How to read this page. Each line is weekly. A gap means the week is missing in the source: the line is broken, nothing is filled in. The dashed line on the index chart is its mean over the period.
Learn more
The index counts the share of articles in major newspapers about geopolitical tension; it is worldwide. Prices come from the Commission's oil bulletin per 1,000 litres, shown per litre here. These lines are backdrop: they are not an input of the model.
Why this is not part of the probability of winning
Geopolitics and outside events are not part of P(win). We keep them out of the calculation, and we would rather say so plainly.
We test layers like this on past elections, leaving one election out each time (leave-one-election-out). A layer enters the model only if it beats the naive baseline on CRPS under both bootstrap schemes. So far, no layer does.
All of this depends very strongly on events, which is why the intervals are wide.
How to read this page
How to read this page. The calendar gives public dates, each with a link to its source. The topics are not model figures.
Learn more
Every fact on this page comes from public sources, linked next to each date. No poll data is used here. Where sources disagree, we say so rather than pick one.