Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day

Parties, blocs and endorsements

The model groups parties into blocs to estimate common errors. Disputed affiliations are flagged.

Parties and blocs

PartyBlocLeaderFigures
D! Debout ! Autres gauche (disputed affiliation) François Ruffin François Ruffin
LC La Convention Autres gauche (disputed affiliation) — Bernard Cazeneuve
MD Mouvement démocrate Centre / Renaissance François Bayrou (president) François Bayrou
RE Renaissance Centre / Renaissance Gabriel Attal (general secretary) Bruno Le Maire, Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, Gérald Darmanin, Yaël Braun-Pivet
HF La France humaniste Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) Benoît Jimenez (president) Dominique de Villepin
IND Sans étiquette Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) — Jean Castex
NE Nouvelle Énergie Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) David Lisnard (president) David Lisnard
NF Nous France Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) — Xavier Bertrand
PAT Les Patriotes Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) Florian Philippot (president) Florian Philippot
RES Résistons ! Прочие, вне колонок (disputed affiliation) Jean Lassalle Jean Lassalle
DLF Debout la France Debout la France Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
LE Les Écologistes Écologistes Marine Tondelier (national secretary) Marine Tondelier, Sandrine Rousseau, Sandrine Rousseau, Yannick Jadot
LO Lutte ouvrière Extrême gauche коллективное руководство; spokesperson Nathalie Arthaud Nathalie Arthaud
NPA Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste Extrême gauche коллективное руководство Philippe Poutou
HOR Horizons Horizons Édouard Philippe Édouard Philippe
LFI La France insoumise LFI Manuel Bompard (coordinator) Jean-Luc Mélenchon
LR Les Républicains Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau (president) Bruno Retailleau, Laurent Wauquiez, Michel Barnier, Xavier Bertrand, Xavier Bertrand
PCF Parti communiste français PCF Fabien Roussel (national secretary) Fabien Roussel
PP Place publique PS – Place publique — Raphaël Glucksmann
PS Parti socialiste PS – Place publique Olivier Faure (first secretary) Carole Delga, François Hollande, Olivier Faure
R! Reconquête Reconquête Éric Zemmour Éric Zemmour, Philippe de Villiers, Sarah Knafo
RN Rassemblement national Rassemblement national et alliés Jordan Bardella (president) Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen
UDR Union des droites pour la République Rassemblement national et alliés Éric Ciotti (president)

How to read this table. Parties are grouped into blocs; under each bloc, the basis of the grouping is shown. A "disputed" party is attached differently depending on the source.

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The grouping serves to read the whole, it does not express a judgement. Each affiliation cites its source; when sources diverge, the "disputed" label flags it rather than settling it.