LC · La Convention Bloc: Autres gauche (disputed affiliation)
In the same bloc
No other candidate of this bloc in the current table.
Profile
Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.
Not enough data in the press.
Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Polls and trend
Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.
How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.
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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.
View the figures as a table
| Date | Pollster | 1st-round score | n = |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 5.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 10.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 9.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 8.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 10.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 9.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 8.0% | 2525 |
| 4 Sep 2023 | Harris Interactive | 7.0% | 2525 |
| 7 Apr 2023 | Harris Interactive | 8.0% | 1320 |
| 7 Apr 2023 | Harris Interactive | 7.0% | 1320 |
| 7 Apr 2023 | Harris Interactive | 5.0% | 1320 |
Probability of winning, day by day
Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).
Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.
How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.
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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.
In the press
What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.
How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.
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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.
Mentions : 2
What the markets say
No market quotes this candidate.