Today
What moved over the last 7 days, and what the press was saying meanwhile.
Today in numbers
- Ahead in round 1
Marine Le Pen 35.7%- Gap to the next one
- 18.5 pts (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
- New polls (7 d)
- 0
- Latest poll
- 22 Oct (11 d ago)
Shares estimated by the model from the polls. This is not a result.
Why it moved
What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.
How to read this table. One card per candidate whose probability moved more than the noise. It shows the move, what it is made of in points, and what the press was saying at the same time.
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The points coming from polls are computed by the model. The press and the market are there for context, with no link claimed. Change the period (1, 7 or 30 days) to see other moves. The curves, the list of all changes and the new polls stay further down, even when nothing passes the threshold.
Nothing moves beyond the threshold (2 points of probability or 0.5 point of average score) over this period. Further down: the curves, the small changes and the new polls.
First-round share: the top eight
Curves for the last 14 days. Each curve has its own vertical scale: compare shapes, not heights.
Marine Le Pen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Raphaël Glucksmann
Gabriel Attal
Bruno Retailleau
Éric Zemmour
Marine Tondelier
Nicolas Dupont-AignanLine: estimated share. Light band: 80% interval. Ordered by estimated share.
How to read this chart. One small curve per candidate: the estimated first-round share over the period, with its 80% band.
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Each curve has its own scale: a steep curve may move by a single point. Read the number next to the name. A wide band means an uncertain estimate.
Every change over 7 days
Even the small ones. Under the threshold (2 points of probability, 0.5 point of share) the bar is greyed and marked "within noise".
| Candidate | Round-1 share | Share change | Probability change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen |
35.7% | 0 pts | +0.5 pts | within noise |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon |
17.2% | 0 pts | −0.2 pts | within noise |
| Raphaël Glucksmann |
13.2% | 0 pts | −0.2 pts | within noise |
| Gabriel Attal |
11.7% | 0 pts | −0.1 pts | within noise |
 Fabien Roussel |
2.2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
| Marine Tondelier |
3.3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan |
2.3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
 Nathalie Arthaud |
0.7% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
| Bruno Retailleau |
9.3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
| Éric Zemmour |
4.3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | within noise |
How to read this table. One line per candidate: the current share and the change over the period, in points. Bars go left (down) or right (up).
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Small changes are shown too, but greyed and marked "within noise": they can be mere luck of the simulations.
Latest polls
No new poll in 7 days. Here are the latest published ones.
| Pollster | Date | Ahead in this poll | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 22 Oct | Marine Le Pen 33.5% |
1500 |
| OpinionWay | 22 Oct | Marine Le Pen 36.0% |
973 |
| Cluster17 | 22 Oct | Marine Le Pen 33.0% |
3000 |
| Harris Interactive | 21 Oct | Marine Le Pen 33.0% |
2094 |
| Ifop | 19 Oct | Marine Le Pen 36.0% |
1928 |
A poll is a snapshot at one moment. Two pollsters do not measure quite the same thing.
How to read this table. First-round polls published over the period: pollster, date, who is ahead in that poll and the sample size.
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A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error. The model corrects each pollster's usual bias before combining them.
The press over the period
1891 articles from 26 Oct to 1 Nov. We count, we do not judge.
Topics
| Alliances | 160 | |
|---|---|---|
| Justice | 61 | |
| Economy | 50 | |
| Security | 25 | |
| Polls | 23 | |
| Immigration | 16 | |
| Pensions | 10 | |
| International | 8 |
Outlets
| L'Opinion | 141 | |
|---|---|---|
| La Dépêche du Midi | 133 | |
| CNEWS | 118 | |
| Midi Libre | 112 | |
| Le Parisien | 101 | |
| L'Express | 100 | |
| Le JDD | 63 | |
| Flux RSS global | 57 |
These are counts, context only. See the Press page
How to read this table. The topics and outlets most present in the articles of the period. Bars count articles.
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This is a count, not a judgement: it says neither whether articles are favourable nor whether they had an effect.
Data freshness
- Model computed on
- 1 Nov 2026
- Latest poll
- 22 Oct 2026 (11 d ago)
- Latest press article
- 1 Nov 2026
- Latest market quote
- 1 Nov 2026