Today

What moved over the last 30 days, and what the press was saying meanwhile.

Today in numbers

Ahead in round 1: Marine Le Pen 35.7%
Gap to the next one: 18.5 pts (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
New polls (30 d): 12
Latest poll: 22 Oct (11 d ago)

Shares estimated by the model from the polls. This is not a result.

Why it moved

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

How to read this table. One card per candidate whose probability moved more than the noise. It shows the move, what it is made of in points, and what the press was saying at the same time.

Learn more

The points coming from polls are computed by the model. The press and the market are there for context, with no link claimed. Change the period (1, 7 or 30 days) to see other moves. The curves, the list of all changes and the new polls stay further down, even when nothing passes the threshold.

Gabriel Attal

Probability of winning: 9.4% → 5.8% in 30 days (−3.6 pts)

Average 1st-round score: 13.4% → 11.7% (−1.7 pts)

Breakdown (probability, in points)
Polls leaving the window — 180 polls	−0.1 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.2 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−1.7 pts
New poll — 7 polls	0 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
Change of main scenario — 28 polls	−1.3 pts
House-effect correction	−0.4 pts
Total	−3.6 pts

Computed without any additional model: the same model, replayed changing one thing at a time. The lines add up to the total.

Market: no quote on both dates.

In the press over the same period

66 articles (previous period: 0) · Attention spike on 29 Oct: 5 articles against 0 on average · Attention spike on 30 Oct: 27 articles against 1 on average · Attention spike on 31 Oct: 26 articles against 3 on average · Topics : Alliances 39, Economy 3, Polls 3, Security 3

Présidentielle 2027 : « On les a gentiment éconduits », Dominique de Villepin a refusé la proposition de Gabriel Attal de prendre part à une primaire Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Mobilisation du 31 octobre, réponse du gouvernement aux lycéens, rassemblement à Trappes... Le "8h30 franceinfo" de Prisca Thevenot France Info · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : Gabriel Attal veut tuer le père et son pair - Le Canard enchaîné Le Canard enchaîné · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : Gabriel Attal plaide pour l’organisation d’une « grande primaire des démocrates » Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : « Il n’est pas encore trop tard »… Aurore Bergé réclame une primaire de la droite et du centre 20 Minutes · 31 Oct

Why? Full detail

Probability of winning: 9.4% → 5.8% (−3.6 pts) in 30 days. First-round share: 13.4% → 11.7% (−1.7 pts).

What the move is made of

Factor	Probability	First-round share
New poll	−1.7 pts	−1.5 pts
Change of main scenario	−1.3 pts	−0.1 pts
House-effect correction	−0.4 pts	0 pts
New poll	+0.3 pts	0 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.2 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
Polls leaving the window	−0.1 pts	0 pts
New poll	0 pts	+0.1 pts
Total	−3.6 pts	−1.7 pts

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Odoxa	7 Oct	—	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Odoxa	7 Oct	11.0%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	5.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	12.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30

Change of main scenario

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	5.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	13.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	6.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	4.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	5.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	6.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	10.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	5.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	11.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Cluster17	22 Oct	—	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	12.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	—	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	4.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	—	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	9.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	15 Oct	—	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	—	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	—	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	17.0%	1263	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	6.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	5.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	7.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	11.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
Cluster17	15 Oct	—	1263	1.00 → 0.43

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	10.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	6.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that dropped out

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	14.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Verian	10 Jul	8.0%	1047	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	13.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	15.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	7.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	7.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	—	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	16.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	15.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	8.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	9.5%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	8.5%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	16.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	—	1368	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	15.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	21 May	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	14.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	—	2000	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	11.5%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	26 Mar	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	10.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	—	1393	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	31 Oct	12.5%	1501	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	—	1124	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	12.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Oct	12.0%	1534	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Sep	—	1210	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	20 May	—	1114	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	—	1071	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	15.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	—	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	—	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	18.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	20.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	20.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	8.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	10.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	24.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	22.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	20.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	23.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	22.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	20.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	22.0%	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	24.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	23.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	19.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	12.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	13 Apr	—	1038	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	8.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	14.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	15.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	—	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	13.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	—	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	12.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	12.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	6.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	8.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	14.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	15.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	12.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Ifop	14 Oct	5.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	13.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	—	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	6.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41

Ageing: with no new poll, the old ones count for less and less. Their weight is halved every 14 days, and a poll older than 60 days leaves the calculation. Over this period it moves the probability by −0.2 pts and the share by 0 pts.

Vote transfers: the second-round matrix is the same on both dates, so it plays no part in this move. In 21% of the simulations the final pair has no head-to-head poll: the model then estimates the transfers.

In the press meanwhile

66 articles (previous period: 0) · Topics : Alliances 39, Economy 3, Polls 3, Security 3

Présidentielle 2027 : « On les a gentiment éconduits », Dominique de Villepin a refusé la proposition de Gabriel Attal de prendre part à une primaire Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Mobilisation du 31 octobre, réponse du gouvernement aux lycéens, rassemblement à Trappes... Le "8h30 franceinfo" de Prisca Thevenot France Info · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : Gabriel Attal veut tuer le père et son pair - Le Canard enchaîné Le Canard enchaîné · 31 Oct

This is context. It does not mean the press caused the move.

Some of it is chance. A gap under 2 points of probability (or 0.5 point of share) stays within the noise of the simulations and of rounding. The current share is estimated between 4.4% and 21.3% (80% interval).

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

Marine Le Pen

Probability of winning: 72.5% → 75.7% in 30 days (+3.2 pts)

Average 1st-round score: 34.0% → 35.7% (+1.7 pts)

Breakdown (probability, in points)
Polls leaving the window — 180 polls	−1.4 pts
Ageing of polls	+0.9 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+4.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.4 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.5 pts
Change of main scenario — 28 polls	+1.3 pts
House-effect correction	−0.3 pts
Total	+3.2 pts

Computed without any additional model: the same model, replayed changing one thing at a time. The lines add up to the total.

Market: no quote on both dates.

In the press over the same period

62 articles (previous period: 0) · Attention spike on 29 Oct: 6 articles against 1 on average · Attention spike on 30 Oct: 17 articles against 1 on average · Attention spike on 31 Oct: 25 articles against 2 on average · Topics : Polls 11, Alliances 10, Economy 5, Justice 5

Why? Full detail

Probability of winning: 72.5% → 75.7% (+3.2 pts) in 30 days. First-round share: 34.0% → 35.7% (+1.7 pts).

What the move is made of

Factor	Probability	First-round share
New poll	+4.3 pts	+2.2 pts
Polls leaving the window	−1.4 pts	0 pts
Change of main scenario	+1.3 pts	−0.8 pts
Ageing of polls	+0.9 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.5 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.4 pts	0 pts
House-effect correction	−0.3 pts	+0.3 pts
New poll	−0.3 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.3 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	0 pts
Total	+3.2 pts	+1.7 pts

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Odoxa	7 Oct	37.0%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Odoxa	7 Oct	38.0%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	35.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	36.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	36.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30

Polls that dropped out

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	30.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	30.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Verian	10 Jul	37.0%	1047	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	35.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	34.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	35.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	35.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	35.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	34.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	35.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	34.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	36.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	36.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	36.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	35.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	36.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	36.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	35.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	34.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	32.0%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	31.0%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	32.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	33.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	32.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	31.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	21 May	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	33.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	32.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	34.0%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	31.5%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	26 Mar	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	35.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	34.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	31 Oct	34.0%	1501	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	34.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	34.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Oct	30.5%	1534	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Sep	33.0%	1210	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	20 May	31.0%	1114	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	31.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	31.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	32.0%	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	32.0%	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	32.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	33.5%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	36.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	36.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	34.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	37.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	35.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	38.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	35.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	36.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	35.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	40.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	34.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	38.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	36.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	35.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	35.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	34.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	34.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	31.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	31.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	32.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	32.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	36.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	35.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	35.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	34.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	33.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	32.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	35.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	31.0%	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	32.0%	1686	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	36.0%	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	36.0%	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	32.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	33.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	33.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	33.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	32.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	32.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	31.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	32.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	32.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	33.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	33.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	32.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	33.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	33.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	30.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	13 Apr	—	1038	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	30.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	32.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	33.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	31.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	29.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	31.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	32.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	35.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	36.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	35.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	38.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	37.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	35.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	35.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	30.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	31.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	29.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	34.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	34.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	34.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	34.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	35.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	34.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	33.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	34.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	33.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	35.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	33.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	34.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	34.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)

Change of main scenario

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	33.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	36.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	36.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	38.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	37.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	38.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	34.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	36.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	35.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	33.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	33.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	35.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	35.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	35.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Cluster17	22 Oct	33.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	32.5%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	30.5%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	33.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	33.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	33.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	32.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	33.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	31.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	31.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	32.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	37.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	36.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	37.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	35.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	36.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	37.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Ifop	14 Oct	32.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	36.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	35.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	34.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	15 Oct	35.5%	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	34.5%	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	35.5%	1263	1.00 → 0.43
Cluster17	15 Oct	35.5%	1263	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	36.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	35.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	35.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	37.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	35.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
Cluster17	15 Oct	31.0%	1263	1.00 → 0.43

In the press meanwhile

62 articles (previous period: 0) · Topics : Polls 11, Alliances 10, Economy 5, Justice 5

This is context. It does not mean the press caused the move.

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

Raphaël Glucksmann

Probability of winning: 7.6% → 8.3% in 30 days (+0.6 pts)

Average 1st-round score: 12.3% → 13.2% (+0.9 pts)

Breakdown (probability, in points)
Polls leaving the window — 180 polls	+0.1 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−1.8 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.5 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.4 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.4 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.6 pts
Change of main scenario — 28 polls	−0.2 pts
New poll — 5 polls	+0.1 pts
House-effect correction	+0.9 pts
Total	+0.6 pts

Computed without any additional model: the same model, replayed changing one thing at a time. The lines add up to the total.

Market: no quote on both dates.

In the press over the same period

39 articles (previous period: 0) · Attention spike on 30 Oct: 12 articles against 1 on average · Attention spike on 31 Oct: 15 articles against 2 on average · Topics : Alliances 24, Polls 3, Immigration 2, Europe 1

« Sortir de notre mollesse » : Glucksmann reconnaît perdre du terrain chez les jeunes face à Mélenchon et évoque « un enjeu de radicalité » Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Victime de harcèlements, Raphaël Glucksmann peine à faire campagne - 7sur7.be 7sur7.be · 31 Oct
Mélenchon, Le Pen et Glucksmann progressent, le centre recule… ce que disent les sondages des dernières semaines, candidat par candidat Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : comme le PS, Raphaël Glucksmann favorable à la régularisation de 300 000 travailleurs sans-papiers Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Présidentielle 2027 : « Il n’est pas encore trop tard »… Aurore Bergé réclame une primaire de la droite et du centre 20 Minutes · 31 Oct

Why? Full detail

Probability of winning: 7.6% → 8.3% (+0.6 pts) in 30 days. First-round share: 12.3% → 13.2% (+0.9 pts).

What the move is made of

Factor	Probability	First-round share
New poll	−1.8 pts	−1.4 pts
House-effect correction	+0.9 pts	+0.6 pts
New poll	+0.6 pts	0 pts
New poll	+0.5 pts	+0.4 pts
New poll	+0.4 pts	+0.1 pts
New poll	+0.4 pts	+0.2 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.3 pts	0 pts
Change of main scenario	−0.2 pts	+0.9 pts
Polls leaving the window	+0.1 pts	0 pts
New poll	+0.1 pts	0 pts
Total	+0.6 pts	+0.9 pts

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Odoxa	7 Oct	9.5%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Odoxa	7 Oct	10.5%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	10.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	10.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	11.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	15.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	16.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	15.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	16.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	15.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Ifop	14 Oct	11.5%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	16.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	13.5%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	14.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	14.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	13.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	12.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	13.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	13.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	16.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	15.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
Cluster17	15 Oct	11.0%	1263	1.00 → 0.43

Change of main scenario

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	16.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	13.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	14.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	16.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	16.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	12.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	13.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	12.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	12.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	14.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	12.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	13.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	13.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Cluster17	22 Oct	13.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	14.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	—	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	13.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	14.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	15.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61

Polls that dropped out

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	10.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	10.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Verian	10 Jul	11.0%	1047	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	10.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	11.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	8.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	—	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	9.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	9.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	10.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	12.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	9.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	10.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	11.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	11.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	—	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	11.0%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	11.5%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	11.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	11.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	11.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	21 May	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	12.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	11.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	12.5%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	26 Mar	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	12.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	11.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	31 Oct	12.0%	1501	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	12.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	14.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Oct	15.0%	1534	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Sep	15.0%	1210	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	20 May	—	1114	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	10.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	11.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	11.5%	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	10.0%	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	—	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	10.5%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	—	1413	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	11.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	14.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	12.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	14.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	14.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	14.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	14.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	13 Apr	—	1038	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	10.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	11.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	10.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	11.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	11.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	11.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	11.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	12.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	11.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	15.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	12.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	18.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	15.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	17.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Ipsos	22 Oct	13.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
OpinionWay	22 Oct	—	973	1.00 → 0.61
OpinionWay	22 Oct	—	973	1.00 → 0.61
OpinionWay	22 Oct	—	973	1.00 → 0.61
OpinionWay	22 Oct	13.0%	973	1.00 → 0.61

In the press meanwhile

39 articles (previous period: 0) · Topics : Alliances 24, Polls 3, Immigration 2, Europe 1

« Sortir de notre mollesse » : Glucksmann reconnaît perdre du terrain chez les jeunes face à Mélenchon et évoque « un enjeu de radicalité » Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Victime de harcèlements, Raphaël Glucksmann peine à faire campagne - 7sur7.be 7sur7.be · 31 Oct
Mélenchon, Le Pen et Glucksmann progressent, le centre recule… ce que disent les sondages des dernières semaines, candidat par candidat Le Parisien · 31 Oct

This is context. It does not mean the press caused the move.

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

Bruno Retailleau

Probability of winning: 4.0% → 4.4% in 30 days (+0.5 pts)

Average 1st-round score: 10.0% → 9.3% (−0.7 pts)

Breakdown (probability, in points)
Polls leaving the window — 180 polls	+1.3 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.5 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
Change of main scenario — 28 polls	−0.1 pts
House-effect correction	−0.1 pts
Total	+0.5 pts

Computed without any additional model: the same model, replayed changing one thing at a time. The lines add up to the total.

Market: no quote on both dates.

In the press over the same period

36 articles (previous period: 3) · Attention spike on 30 Oct: 16 articles against 1 on average · Topics : Alliances 21, Economy 2, Polls 1

Présidentielle 2027 : Attal, Philippe, Villepin, Retailleau… qui est pour, qui est contre une primaire au centre-droit ? 20 Minutes · 30 Oct
Albert Zennou : « Présidentielle 2027, le moment David Lisnard, le doute Bruno Retailleau » - Le Figaro Le Figaro · 30 Oct
Le soutien empoisonné de François Fillon à Bruno Retailleau - AgoraVox le média citoyen AgoraVox le média citoyen · 30 Oct
Quand Attal refusait toute alliance avec Retailleau… qu’il implore désormais de participer à sa primaire Libération · 30 Oct
Interdire LFI mais pas Reconquête ? Le grand moment de malaise de la vice-présidente des jeunes LR Libération · 30 Oct

Why? Full detail

Probability of winning: 4.0% → 4.4% (+0.5 pts) in 30 days. First-round share: 10.0% → 9.3% (−0.7 pts).

What the move is made of

Factor	Probability	First-round share
Polls leaving the window	+1.3 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.5 pts	−0.5 pts
Change of main scenario	−0.1 pts	+0.1 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
House-effect correction	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
Total	+0.5 pts	−0.7 pts

Polls that dropped out

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	8.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	10.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Verian	10 Jul	7.0%	1047	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	8.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	11.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	9.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	11.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	8.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	8.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	8.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	9.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	12.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	10.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	8.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	7.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	8.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	9.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	8.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	8.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	8.5%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	8.5%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	11.5%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	9.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	11.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	10.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	21 May	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	13.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	10.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	10.0%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	8.5%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	26 Mar	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	12.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	11.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	31 Oct	8.0%	1501	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	10.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	11.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Oct	14.0%	1534	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Sep	9.0%	1210	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	20 May	16.0%	1114	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	12.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	16.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	10.0%	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	9.0%	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	8.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	—	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	10.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	11.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	—	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	—	1101	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	—	1009	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	—	1107	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	2496	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	—	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	—	2525	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	13 Apr	—	1038	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	—	1320	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	—	1105	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	6.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	9.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	9.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	7.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	7.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	7.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	9.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	6.5%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	6.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	9.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	6.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	9.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	7.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	7.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	6.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	9.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	8.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	12.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	8.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	9.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	8.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Odoxa	7 Oct	6.5%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Odoxa	7 Oct	9.0%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	7.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	7.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	10.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30

Change of main scenario

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	7.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	5.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	7.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	7.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	6.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	6.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	5.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	6.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	4.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	5.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	6.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	7.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	9.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Cluster17	22 Oct	8.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	10.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	7.0%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	7.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	8.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	11.5%	1500	1.00 → 0.61

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	8.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	10.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Ifop	14 Oct	5.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	8.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	6.5%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	6.5%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41

In the press meanwhile

36 articles (previous period: 3) · Topics : Alliances 21, Economy 2, Polls 1

Présidentielle 2027 : Attal, Philippe, Villepin, Retailleau… qui est pour, qui est contre une primaire au centre-droit ? 20 Minutes · 30 Oct
Albert Zennou : « Présidentielle 2027, le moment David Lisnard, le doute Bruno Retailleau » - Le Figaro Le Figaro · 30 Oct
Le soutien empoisonné de François Fillon à Bruno Retailleau - AgoraVox le média citoyen AgoraVox le média citoyen · 30 Oct

This is context. It does not mean the press caused the move.

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Probability of winning: 5.5% → 4.9% in 30 days (−0.5 pts)

Average 1st-round score: 16.6% → 17.2% (+0.6 pts)

Breakdown (probability, in points)
Polls leaving the window — 180 polls	−0.1 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.4 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.2 pts
New poll — 7 polls	+0.1 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
New poll — 7 polls	0 pts
New poll — 7 polls	−0.1 pts
Change of main scenario — 28 polls	+0.4 pts
House-effect correction	−0.1 pts
Total	−0.5 pts

Computed without any additional model: the same model, replayed changing one thing at a time. The lines add up to the total.

Market: no quote on both dates.

In the press over the same period

93 articles (previous period: 0) · Attention spike on 29 Oct: 6 articles against 0 on average · Attention spike on 30 Oct: 34 articles against 1 on average · Attention spike on 31 Oct: 38 articles against 3 on average · Topics : Alliances 13, Polls 9, Economy 7, Pensions 6

« Sortir de notre mollesse » : Glucksmann reconnaît perdre du terrain chez les jeunes face à Mélenchon et évoque « un enjeu de radicalité » Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Menaces de mort contre l'ancienne députée Catherine Couturier et Jean-Luc Mélenchon : le Collectif Antifa alerte le préfet de la Creuse - La Montagne La Montagne · 31 Oct
Jean-Luc Mélenchon BFM TV · 31 Oct
Mélenchon, Le Pen et Glucksmann progressent, le centre recule… ce que disent les sondages des dernières semaines, candidat par candidat Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Les recettes économiques de Marine Le Pen et de Jean-Luc Mélenchon pour plonger la France dans une profonde crise - Trends-Tendances Trends-Tendances · 31 Oct

Why? Full detail

Probability of winning: 5.5% → 4.9% (−0.5 pts) in 30 days. First-round share: 16.6% → 17.2% (+0.6 pts).

What the move is made of

Factor	Probability	First-round share
Change of main scenario	+0.4 pts	+0.4 pts
Ageing of polls	−0.4 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.2 pts	+1.4 pts
House-effect correction	−0.1 pts	−0.8 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	0 pts
New poll	+0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
Polls leaving the window	−0.1 pts	0 pts
New poll	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts
New poll	0 pts	−0.1 pts
Total	−0.5 pts	+0.6 pts

Change of main scenario

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	15.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	16.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	—	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	16.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	16.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	18.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	20.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	15.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	15.5%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Ifop	19 Oct	15.0%	1928	1.00 → 0.53
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	—	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	17.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	17.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	17.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	17.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	19.0%	2094	1.00 → 0.58
Cluster17	22 Oct	18.5%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	19.5%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Cluster17	22 Oct	19.5%	3000	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	17.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	17.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61
Ipsos	22 Oct	17.0%	1500	1.00 → 0.61

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Odoxa	7 Oct	18.0%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Odoxa	7 Oct	18.5%	12005	1.00 → 0.29
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	18.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	—	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	18.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	18.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Elabe	16 Oct	15.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	16.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	15.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	16.0%	1701	1.00 → 0.45
Elabe	16 Oct	15.5%	1701	1.00 → 0.45

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	18.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	19.0%	2004	1.00 → 0.30
Ifop	14 Oct	16.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	17.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	16.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
Ifop	14 Oct	16.0%	1525	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41

Polls that dropped out

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	18.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	18.0%	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Cluster17	24 Jul	—	1506	0.03 → 0.01 (too old)
Verian	10 Jul	15.0%	1047	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	16.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	14.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	14.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	15.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	14.5%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
Elabe	10 Jul	15.0%	1503	0.02 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	13.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	15.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	9 Jul	15.0%	963	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	15.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	15.0%	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ifop	8 Jul	—	984	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	—	1582	0.01 → 0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	13.5%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ipsos	28 May	13.0%	1500	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	13.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	28 May	13.0%	1368	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	15.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	14.0%	1744	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	27 May	—	1744	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	21 May	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	12.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	22 Apr	12.0%	2000	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	12.0%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	11.5%	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	27 Mar	—	1504	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	26 Mar	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	11.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Feb	10.0%	1393	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	20 Nov	—	1300	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	31 Oct	11.5%	1501	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	14.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Oct	14.0%	1124	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Oct	15.0%	1534	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Sep	12.0%	1210	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	20 May	13.5%	1114	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	14.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 May	15.0%	1071	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	12.0%	1005	0.00 (too old)
Odoxa	24 Apr	—	1005	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	10.0%	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Ifop/Hexagone	18 Apr	—	9128	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	10.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	9.5%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Elabe	4 Apr	11.0%	1413	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	12.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	13.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	13.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	27 Mar	13.0%	1119	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	12.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	11.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	12.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Dec	12.0%	1101	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	10.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	15.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	10.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	14.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	4.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	12 Sep	10.0%	1009	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	10.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	10.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	9.0%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	9 Sep	9.5%	1107	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	15.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	15.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	16.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	8 Jul	17.0%	2496	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	24 Apr	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	13.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	14.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	15.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	16.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	14.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	13.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	13.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	12.0%	1090	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	18 Apr	—	1090	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	—	1686	0.00 (too old)
Cluster17	5 Apr	18.0%	1686	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	14.0%	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	14.0%	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	1 Feb	—	1081	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	14.5%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	15.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	14.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	10 Jan	13.0%	1144	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	14.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	15.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	15.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	—	1179	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	25 Oct	14.0%	1179	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	17.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	17.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	4 Sep	16.0%	2525	0.00 (too old)
OpinionWay	13 Apr	17.0%	1038	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	16.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	18.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	19.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	7 Apr	17.0%	1320	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	17.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	22.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	20.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	20.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Ifop	31 Mar	20.0%	1105	0.00 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	16.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	17.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	17.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	17.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	17.0%	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Harris Interactive	19 Aug	—	1764	0.11 → 0.03 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	18.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	18.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Cluster17	1 Sep	17.0%	1711	0.22 → 0.05 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.0%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	14.5%	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Elabe	28 Aug	—	1501	0.18 → 0.04 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	16.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	17.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	17.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	17.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	18.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	18.5%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	19.0%	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)
Ifop	25 Aug	—	1598	0.15 → 0.03 (too old)

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	15.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	—	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	14.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	15.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
OpinionWay	14 Oct	15.0%	1043	1.00 → 0.41
Cluster17	15 Oct	18.0%	1263	1.00 → 0.43

Polls that came in

Pollster	Date	Candidate's share	Sample	Weight (recency)
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	—	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	15.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	15.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	16.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
YouGov	15 Oct	13.0%	1094	1.00 → 0.43
Elabe	16 Oct	—	1701	1.00 → 0.45

In the press meanwhile

93 articles (previous period: 0) · Topics : Alliances 13, Polls 9, Economy 7, Pensions 6

« Sortir de notre mollesse » : Glucksmann reconnaît perdre du terrain chez les jeunes face à Mélenchon et évoque « un enjeu de radicalité » Le Parisien · 31 Oct
Menaces de mort contre l'ancienne députée Catherine Couturier et Jean-Luc Mélenchon : le Collectif Antifa alerte le préfet de la Creuse - La Montagne La Montagne · 31 Oct
Jean-Luc Mélenchon BFM TV · 31 Oct

This is context. It does not mean the press caused the move.

What the press said at the same time is context, not the cause: two things can happen together without being linked.

First-round share: the top eight

Curves for the last 30 days. Each curve has its own vertical scale: compare shapes, not heights.

Marine Le Pen

35.7% 18.5–49.0%

+1.7 pts over 30 d

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

17.2% 7.2–28.7%

+0.6 pts over 30 d

Raphaël Glucksmann

13.2% 5.2–23.4%

+0.9 pts over 30 d

Gabriel Attal

11.7% 4.4–21.3%

−1.7 pts over 30 d

Bruno Retailleau

9.3% 3.4–17.5%

−0.7 pts over 30 d

Éric Zemmour

4.3% 1.3–9.4%

−0.1 pts over 30 d

Marine Tondelier

3.3% 0.9–7.6%

−0.3 pts over 30 d

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

2.3% 0.6–5.6%

+0.1 pts over 30 d

Line: estimated share. Light band: 80% interval. Ordered by estimated share.

How to read this chart. One small curve per candidate: the estimated first-round share over the period, with its 80% band.

Learn more

Each curve has its own scale: a steep curve may move by a single point. Read the number next to the name. A wide band means an uncertain estimate.

Every change over 30 days

Even the small ones. Under the threshold (2 points of probability, 0.5 point of share) the bar is greyed and marked "within noise".

Candidate	Round-1 share	Share change	Probability change
Marine Le Pen	35.7%	+1.7 pts	+3.2 pts
Gabriel Attal	11.7%	−1.7 pts	−3.6 pts
Raphaël Glucksmann	13.2%	+0.9 pts	+0.6 pts
Bruno Retailleau	9.3%	−0.7 pts	+0.5 pts
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	17.2%	+0.6 pts	−0.5 pts
Marine Tondelier	3.3%	−0.3 pts	−0.1 pts	within noise
Fabien Roussel	2.2%	−0.2 pts	0 pts	within noise
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2.3%	+0.1 pts	0 pts	within noise
Éric Zemmour	4.3%	−0.1 pts	−0.1 pts	within noise
Nathalie Arthaud	0.7%	−0.1 pts	0 pts	within noise
Édouard Philippe	0.0%	0 pts	0 pts	within noise

How to read this table. One line per candidate: the current share and the change over the period, in points. Bars go left (down) or right (up).

Learn more

Small changes are shown too, but greyed and marked "within noise": they can be mere luck of the simulations.

New polls of the period

Pollster	Date	Ahead in this poll	Sample
Ipsos	22 Oct	Marine Le Pen 33.5%	1500
OpinionWay	22 Oct	Marine Le Pen 36.0%	973
Cluster17	22 Oct	Marine Le Pen 33.0%	3000
Harris Interactive	21 Oct	Marine Le Pen 33.0%	2094
Ifop	19 Oct	Marine Le Pen 36.0%	1928
Elabe	16 Oct	Marine Le Pen 32.5%	1701
YouGov	15 Oct	Marine Le Pen 36.0%	1094
Cluster17	15 Oct	Marine Le Pen 31.0%	1263
Ifop	14 Oct	Marine Le Pen 32.0%	1525
OpinionWay	14 Oct	Marine Le Pen 35.0%	1043
Harris Interactive	8 Oct	Marine Le Pen 35.0%	2004
Odoxa	7 Oct	Marine Le Pen 37.0%	12005

A poll is a snapshot at one moment. Two pollsters do not measure quite the same thing.

How to read this table. First-round polls published over the period: pollster, date, who is ahead in that poll and the sample size.

Learn more

A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error. The model corrects each pollster's usual bias before combining them.

The press over the period

2060 articles from 3 Oct to 1 Nov. We count, we do not judge.

Topics

Alliances		170
Justice		61
Economy		53
Security		29
Polls		23
Immigration		16
Pensions		10
International		9

Outlets

L'Opinion		250
La Dépêche du Midi		133
CNEWS		118
Midi Libre		112
Le Parisien		101
L'Express		100
Le JDD		63
Flux RSS global		57

These are counts, context only. See the Press page

How to read this table. The topics and outlets most present in the articles of the period. Bars count articles.

Learn more

This is a count, not a judgement: it says neither whether articles are favourable nor whether they had an effect.

Data freshness

Model computed on: 1 Nov 2026
Latest poll: 22 Oct 2026 (11 d ago)
Latest press article: 1 Nov 2026
Latest market quote: 1 Nov 2026