Glossary
The terms used on the site, in plain language.
- 80% interval
- Range in which, according to the model, the figure falls four times out of five. A wide range means the estimate is uncertain.
- simulation
- A computer draw of an election, taking into account the usual error of polls. The model replays tens of thousands of them; the share of simulations in which a candidate wins gives their probability.
- vote transfer
- The share of voters of a candidate eliminated in the first round who vote for one finalist or the other in the second, or abstain.
- betting market
- A platform where people stake money on the outcome of an election. The price of a bet reads as a probability, but it also reflects the market's biases and liquidity.
- pollster bias
- The usual gap between a pollster's results and the average of the others. The model corrects part of it, with caution when the pollster has few polls.
- poll scenario
- The choice of polls used for the computation (for example, according to the list of candidates tested). The main scenario is the one that retains the most comparable polls; the others show what a different choice would give.
- probability of winning
- The share of the model's simulations in which the candidate is elected. It is neither a poll nor a certain forecast.
- second-round qualification
- The share of simulations in which the candidate finishes in the top two of the first round.
- second-round head-to-head
- A poll or simulation of a second round between two specific candidates.
- reconstructed curve
- For days before the site launched, the model is replayed day by day on only the polls already published that day: this is not what the site would have displayed at the time.