Our approach

An independent project, with no link to a party, a candidate, a client or an advertiser. Nobody has told us what to show, and nobody reads our results before they go online.

We aggregate three public sources: polls published by pollsters, betting-market quotes and press articles. Every day a statistical model recomputes, from the polls alone, each candidate's probability of reaching the second round and of winning. We always show the uncertainty interval next to the figure, the date and pollster of each poll, and the headline of each article with its publisher and a link to the original.

• We do not call for a vote, neither for a candidate nor against another.
• We judge neither programmes nor people.
• We do not present the model's results as an opinion: they are numerical estimates, with a margin of error.
• We do not comment on the motives of candidates or of newspapers.

Candidates are always ranked by a number (probability, score) or alphabetically. All have the same profile, the same chart size and the same kind of landmark. Colours only tell the curves apart: they express neither a judgement nor a political family. In the press, each article carries the name of its publisher; we show sources from the whole editorial spectrum and the count by title.

• The model only knows published polls. It ignores any event they have not yet measured.
• Polls get it wrong: the historical error is built into the interval, but the calibration rests on only two elections (2017 and 2022).
• The second round is simulated from head-to-head polls when they exist, and from an estimated vote transfer otherwise. This share is shown on the "Method" page.
• Betting markets are shown for comparison. They have their own biases and sometimes thin liquidity: the gap with the model does not say which one is right.
• A probability is not a prediction: 20% does not mean "will not happen".

This site makes no money and seeks none. It has no advertising, no paywall, no client and no sponsor, and we sell no data. Its mission fits in one sentence: to make public information about the campaign clearer and quicker to consult. Our lack of opinion is a commitment, not a pose: if a result seemed to us contrary to what the site "should" show, we would publish it anyway.

Candidate portraits come from Wikimedia Commons and are used only under a free licence (CC BY, CC BY-SA, CC0 or public domain). All are shown at the same size and in the same frame; a person without a free photo is shown with their initials. Author, licence and source page of every image are listed below and under the photo on the candidate's page.

• Bernard Cazeneuve : Jérémy Barande, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Bruno Le Maire : Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU 2024 from Belgium, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Bruno Retailleau : Anthonymontardyfr, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• David Lisnard : Grégor Sauvagère, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Dominique de Villepin : Georges Seguin (Okki), CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Fabien Roussel : Zouhair NAKARA, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Florian Philippot : Thomas Bresson, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• François Hollande : Christophe Licoppe / European Union, 2024 / EC - Audiovisual Service, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• François Ruffin : Thinkerview, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Gabriel Attal : Ismail Aissoub, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Jean Lassalle : Antoine Lamielle, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon : jlm2017.fr, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Jordan Bardella : European Parliament from EU, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Laurent Wauquiez : Un Gone, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Marine Le Pen : Vox España, CC0, Wikimedia Commons
• Marine Tondelier : Selbymay, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Nathalie Arthaud : Kokluts, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Nicolas Dupont-Aignan : Debout la France, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Philippe Poutou : Patrice CALATAYU from Bordeaux, France, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Philippe de Villiers : Guillaume Paumier, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Raphaël Glucksmann : Mathieu Delmestre, Public domain, Wikimedia Commons
• Sandrine Rousseau : Greenbox, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Sarah Knafo : Siren-Com, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Xavier Bertrand : Claudio Centonze / European Union, 2025 / EC - Audiovisual Service, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Yannick Jadot : Greenbox, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons
• Édouard Philippe : Wasasaq8, CC0, Wikimedia Commons
• Éric Zemmour : Anh De France, CC0, Wikimedia Commons

No correction published to date. Any error found will be corrected here, dated and explained.

The rules specific to polls (law of 19 July 1977) are detailed in the legal notice. Legal notice