R! · Reconquête Bloc: Reconquête
In the same bloc
No other candidate of this bloc in the current table.
- 1st-round score
- 4.3% 1.3–9.4
- Qualifies for the 2nd round
- 2%
- Comes first in the 1st round
- <1%
- Wins the election
- <1% <1%
Model, not a poll · spread across scenarios · 80% interval · 1 Nov 2026
Profile
Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.
Éric Zemmour is a far-right French journalist and politician, a candidate for the 2027 presidential election. A former editorialist for Le Figaro and media commentator, he founded the Reconquête party after his 2022 candidacy. He is regularly prosecuted and convicted for statements inciting racial or religious hatred.
Strengths
- According to Frontières, Éric Zemmour is identified as a potential candidate for the 2027 presidential election, despite political maneuvers aimed at limiting his sponsorship signatures. Frontières · 30 Oct 2026
- Le JDD reports that his supporters, notably Sarah Knafo, are mobilizing regulatory bodies such as Arcom to challenge media coverage they deem unfavorable. Le JDD Right · 31 Oct 2026
- Wikipedia notes that his essays achieved significant bookstore success, contributing to his public notoriety before entering politics. Wikipédia
Weaknesses
- According to a poll cited by Le Parisien, Éric Zemmour is among the candidates for whom French people most refuse to vote. Le Parisien Centre
- Libération highlights that his party, Reconquête, has been convicted multiple times for inciting racial hatred, raising questions about its political treatment compared to other parties. Libération Left · 30 Oct 2026
- Nice-Matin indicates that events supported by his party, such as the collective «La France résiste», can gather a very limited number of participants. Nice-Matin · 29 Oct 2026
Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Polls and trend
Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.
How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.
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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.
View the figures as a table
| Date | Pollster | 1st-round score | n = |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | Cluster17 | 3.5% | 3000 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Cluster17 | 4.0% | 3000 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Cluster17 | 4.0% | 3000 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | OpinionWay | 4.0% | 973 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Ipsos | 4.0% | 1500 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Ipsos | 4.5% | 1500 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Ipsos | 4.5% | 1500 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Ipsos | 4.5% | 1500 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Harris Interactive | 6.0% | 2094 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Harris Interactive | 5.0% | 2094 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Harris Interactive | 6.0% | 2094 |
| 21 Oct 2026 | Harris Interactive | 5.0% | 2094 |
Estimated share and uncertainty fan
Experimental: this block does not feed into the probability of winning. Left of the vertical line: dots are polls, the line is the smoothed median of the estimate, the pale band its 80% interval. Right: the state estimated on the day of the last poll, carried forward 28 days with the same random walk; three nested bands hold 50, 80 and 95% of the draws. It measures the uncertainty of the estimate; it does not announce the vote.
Experimental · does not feed into the probability of winning
- Poll
- Smoothed median
- 80% interval (past)
- 50% fan
- 80% fan
- 95% fan
- Carried-forward median
- last poll
How to read this chart. Horizontal axis: time; vertical axis: the share of voting intentions, in %. Dots are polls, the line is the median of the estimate. After the vertical line the bands widen: the further from the last poll, the less certain the estimate.
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The three nested bands hold 50, 80 and 95% of the draws of the estimated state, carried forward with the same random walk as the opinion model; they contain neither future polls nor the vote itself. Validation shows this layer's intervals are too narrow: read them as a lower bound on uncertainty. The table under the chart gives the same values as numbers.
View the figures as a table · Fan values
| Days after the last poll | Date | Percentile 2.5 | Percentile 10 | Percentile 25 | Percentile 50 | Percentile 75 | Percentile 90 | Percentile 97.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22 Oct | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 7 | 29 Oct | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| 14 | 5 Nov | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| 21 | 12 Nov | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 28 | 19 Nov | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
Probability of winning, day by day
Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).
Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.
How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.
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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.
Second-round head-to-heads
How to read this table. Each line pits two candidates against each other in the second round. The first table gives the score of head-to-head polls; the second, the share of simulations in which the first named wins.
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Head-to-head polls test specific pairs on a given date; the model, for its part, simulates all possible pairs from the first round and vote transfers. The two figures can therefore differ without contradicting each other.
Most likely match-ups according to the model
In the press
What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.
How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.
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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.
Mentions : 6
- Présidentielle 2027 : Mélenchon, Zemmour, Tondelier… ces candidats pour lesquels les Français refusent le plus de voter, selon un nouveau sondage Le Parisien · 31 Oct 2026
- Présidentielle 2027 : Bruno Retailleau manœuvre pour priver David Lisnard et Éric Zemmour des parrainages - Frontières Frontières · 30 Oct 2026
- Interdire LFI mais pas Reconquête ? Le grand moment de malaise de la vice-présidente des jeunes LR Libération · 30 Oct 2026
- Théorie complotiste, idéologie raciste : comment est né le concept de remigration porté par Éric Zemmour - La Montagne La Montagne · 30 Oct 2026
- Tiris Zemmour : lancement des concertations sur la deuxième phase du Programme d’urgence de développement local - Cridem Cridem · 30 Oct 2026
- Le spectre de la « guerre civile » : pourquoi la droite et l’extrême droite sont-elles obsédées par ce dangereux fantasme ? Le Nouvel Obs · 30 Oct 2026
What the markets say
How to read this chart. The solid line is the model's probability; the other lines are betting-market quotes. Above the chart is the day's gap.
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A betting market reflects money stakes, with their biases and liquidity. It is neither a poll nor the truth: it is another source, shown next to the model so that everyone can compare.
Model <1% · Market <1% (kalshi) · Gap = — within the noise