Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
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Jordan Bardella
Photo: European Parliament from EU, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

Jordan Bardella

RN — Rassemblement national et alliés

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

Jordan Bardella, born in 1995, has been the president of the National Rally since 2021 and is a Member of the European Parliament. He is identified as a potential or probable candidate for the 2027 presidential election, succeeding Marine Le Pen as party leader. His political trajectory is marked by rapid advancement within the National Rally and constant media visibility.

Strengths

  • He assumed the presidency of the National Rally in 2021, consolidating his status as Marine Le Pen's heir apparent. Wikipédia
  • According to Nice-Matin, he enjoys strong local popularity, illustrated by gatherings described as 'crowd baths' in territories considered secure. Nice-Matin · 31 Oct 2026
  • He maintains an active media and political presence, notably through book signings and regular trips, such as the one planned for Hénin-Beaumont. HorizonActu.fr · 31 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • According to L'Opinion, he faces internal doubts regarding the weakness of his entourage, his authority, and his ability to broaden the electorate. L'Opinion Centre-right · 23 Oct 2026
  • Investigations by Mediapart, relayed by Orange Actualités and L'Opinion, revealed antisemitic writings attributed to Jordan Bardella, sparking criticism over the lack of political consequences. Orange Actualités · 30 Oct 2026 ; L'Opinion Centre-right · 24 Oct 2026
  • His image is regularly challenged by controversies over his lifestyle, particularly concerning a luxury watch, and by hostile slogans that went viral during demonstrations. 20 Minutes · 31 Oct 2026 ; Marie France, magazine féminin · 31 Oct 2026 ; Gentside · 29 Oct 2026

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
9 Dec 2024Ifop34.0%1101
12 Sep 2024OpinionWay35.0%1009
18 Apr 2024Ifop33.0%1090
18 Apr 2024Ifop30.0%1090
10 Jan 2024Ifop27.0%1144
10 Jan 2024Ifop28.0%1144
13 Apr 2023OpinionWay23.0%1038

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 23

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.