LR · Les Républicains Bloc: Les Républicains
In the same bloc
Other candidates of the “Les Républicains” bloc, with their current score.
Bruno Retailleau
LR 9.3%
Profile
Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.
Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France regional council and former minister, is identified as a potential candidate for the 2027 presidential election. He left Les Républicains in 2017 before rejoining the party in 2021, without obtaining the party's nomination at that year's congress. His potential candidacy is subject to discussions regarding the need for partisan support or a broader coalition.
Strengths
- He has previous ministerial experience, having served as Minister of Health and Minister of Labour between 2005 and 2012. Wikipédia
- He has served as president of the Hauts-de-France regional council since 2016, providing him with a local territorial base. Wikipédia
- According to Le Figaro, he maintains political momentum by mobilizing his supporters during working meetings to prepare his path toward a candidacy. Le Figaro Right · 30 Oct 2026
Weaknesses
- He does not have the official backing of Les Républicains, which raises questions about the weight of his candidacy according to parlons-politique.fr. https://www.parlons-politique.fr/ · 30 Oct 2026
- He finished in fourth place at the 2021 Les Républicains congress with 22.4% of the vote, indicating a lack of internal majority within the party. Wikipédia
- His position on the political spectrum is sometimes viewed within the framework of a coalition ranging from the left to the right, suggesting difficulty in establishing himself alone according to Frontières. Frontières · 31 Oct 2026
Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Polls and trend
Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.
How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.
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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.
View the figures as a table
| Date | Pollster | 1st-round score | n = |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026 | YouGov | 1.0% | 1103 |
| 12 Sep 2024 | OpinionWay | 7.0% | 1009 |
| 18 Apr 2024 | Ifop | 6.0% | 1090 |
Probability of winning, day by day
Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).
Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.
How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.
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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.
In the press
What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.
How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.
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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.
Mentions : 6
- Présidentielle 2027 : deux macronistes historiques appellent à une coalition « de Raphaël Glucksmann à Xavier Bertrand - Frontières Frontières · 31 Oct 2026
- Présidentielle 2027 : pourquoi les derniers sondages pourraient pousser de nouveaux candidats à se déclarer d’ici Noël Midi Libre · 30 Oct 2026
- Présidentielle 2027 : « Il continue de penser qu’il y a un chemin », Xavier Bertrand trace sa route vers une candidature - Le Figaro Le Figaro · 30 Oct 2026
- Train annulé pour le marathon de Lille : Xavier Bertrand saisit la SNCF et dénonce une situation « inadmissible - La Voix du Nord La Voix du Nord · 30 Oct 2026
- Présidentielle 2027 : la candidature de Xavier Bertrand peut-elle peser sans l’appui officiel des Républicains ? - https://www.parlons-politique.fr/ https://www.parlons-politique.fr/ · 30 Oct 2026
- Journal d'une succession, J-186 : trou d’air, second souffle et bouquet final L'Opinion · 27 Oct 2026
What the markets say
No market quotes this candidate.