Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day

← Parties and blocs

Les Républicains (LR)

Bloc: Les Républicains. Leader: Bruno Retailleau (president).

колонка LR

Wikipedia · Search news about the party and its leader

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

Les Républicains (LR) is a French right-wing political party, formed in 2015 from the transformation of the UMP and continuing the tradition of Gaullist and conservative formations. After being the main parliamentary opposition force under the presidencies of François Hollande and Emmanuel Macron, the party suffered major electoral defeats in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. In 2026, it remains an active component of the political landscape, with Bruno Retailleau as its central figure and internal debates regarding alliances and the primary for the 2027 presidential election.

Strengths

  • The party maintains significant institutional presence, notably in the Senate where it contributed to the rejection of the reform on Corsican autonomy. Wikipédia ; Les Échos Centre-right · 27 Oct 2026
  • According to Le Progrès, the party's local structures, such as in the Jura, show unanimous support for their candidate Bruno Retailleau. Le Progrès · 31 Oct 2026
  • The party has active media and political figures, such as Michel Barnier, who regularly intervenes on budgetary and institutional issues. France Info · 30 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • The party recorded historically low scores in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, with its candidates eliminated in the first round. Wikipédia
  • According to Libération, the party faces difficulties in ideological positioning, illustrated by the discomfort of one of its representatives regarding the question of banning rival parties. Libération Left · 30 Oct 2026
  • Le Nouvel Obs notes internal and external competition with David Lisnard, whose candidacy is described as a difficulty for Bruno Retailleau. France Info · 31 Oct 2026 ; Le Nouvel Obs Centre-left · 29 Oct 2026

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Figures

Bruno Retailleau 2015
Laurent Wauquiez 2015
Michel Barnier
Xavier Bertrand 2015 → 2017
Xavier Bertrand 2021 · disputed affiliation

Bloc candidates

Candidates of the “Les Républicains” bloc (all parties), current score and change over about 7 days from the model history.

CandidateParty1st-round score7-day change
Bruno RetailleauBruno Retailleau LR9.3% 0 pts

How to read this table. One row per candidate of the bloc: current score and change over about a week. The change comes from the model's daily history, not from a single poll.

Learn more

A dash means the history does not reach back far enough. Days reconstructed after the fact are part of this history.

Press coverage of the party's figures

Bruno Retailleau

Laurent Wauquiez

Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand