Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
FRRUEN
Laurent Wauquiez
Photo: Un Gone, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

Laurent Wauquiez

LR — Les Républicains

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

Laurent Wauquiez, born in 1975, is a right-wing French politician, former minister, and president of the Republican Right group in the National Assembly. Former president of the Republicans party and the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, he is currently a candidate for the 2027 presidential election. He positions himself as a central figure of the right, emphasizing themes of budgetary rigor and unity against the left.

Strengths

  • He possesses extensive government and parliamentary experience, having held ministerial and secretary of state positions under several presidencies. Wikipédia
  • He demonstrated political resilience by being re-elected as a deputy and group president in the National Assembly after resigning from the presidency of the Republicans. Wikipédia
  • He promotes a discourse focused on the necessity of budgetary rigor, stating, according to L'Opinion, that the question is no longer whether there will be a financial crisis, but when. L'Opinion Centre-right · 28 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • His tenure at the head of the Republicans ended with a resignation following his party's poor performance in the 2019 European elections. Wikipédia
  • According to Frontières, he is criticized for a strategy deemed likely to constitute a 'losing machine' for the right in 2027. Frontières · 30 Oct 2026
  • He is accused by some of bearing 'immense responsibility' for the political dynamics that could favor Jean-Luc Mélenchon's qualification for the second round. Frontières · 30 Oct 2026

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
4 Apr 2025Elabe4.5%1413
27 Mar 2025Ifop5.0%1119
27 Mar 2025Ifop8.0%1119
27 Mar 2025Ifop5.0%1119
9 Dec 2024Ifop6.5%1101
9 Dec 2024Ifop6.0%1101
9 Dec 2024Ifop6.0%1101
9 Dec 2024Ifop8.0%1101
12 Sep 2024OpinionWay4.0%1009
12 Sep 2024OpinionWay6.0%1009
12 Sep 2024OpinionWay5.0%1009
12 Sep 2024OpinionWay5.0%1009

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 2

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.