Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
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Sarah Knafo
Photo: Siren-Com, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

Sarah Knafo

R! — Reconquête

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

Sarah Knafo is a French magistrate and politician, a Member of the European Parliament since 2024 and a central figure in the Reconquête movement. A declared candidate for the 2027 presidential election, she is also the author of a book that reached number one in sales in France. Her recent trajectory has been marked by media controversies, notably the cancellation of a book signing event in Brittany and a referral to Arcom following a television interview.

Strengths

  • Her book «Le Casse du siècle» ranked number one in sales in France, with more than 266,000 copies sold. Presse Agence · 31 Oct 2026 ; Crédit News · 31 Oct 2026
  • She recorded a historic audience record on Franceinfo during an interview, according to Presse Agence. Presse Agence · 31 Oct 2026
  • She enjoys significant media visibility, illustrated by her public appearances and responses to political criticism. Presse Agence · 31 Oct 2026 ; Le JDD Right · 30 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • A book signing event was cancelled in Brittany due to risks of protests and concerning information reported by the venue. Actu.fr · 31 Oct 2026 ; maville.com · 30 Oct 2026 ; Le Télégramme · 30 Oct 2026 ; Ouest-France · 30 Oct 2026
  • According to Libération (left-wing), an interview on Franceinfo was described as «painful» by editorial teams, who supported their journalists against attacks from the «fachosphere». Libération Left · 28 Oct 2026
  • She received sharp responses from political figures, such as Tiziri Digne, during exchanges regarding the Algerian War. diasporas.tsa-algerie.com · 31 Oct 2026

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
28 May 2026Ifop4.0%1368
28 May 2026Ifop4.0%1368
28 May 2026Ipsos4.5%1500
28 May 2026Ipsos4.5%1500
27 May 2026Harris Interactive6.0%1744
27 May 2026Harris Interactive6.0%1744
22 Apr 2026Harris Interactive6.0%2000
22 Apr 2026Harris Interactive5.0%2000
27 Mar 2026Elabe4.0%1504
27 Feb 2026Ifop4.0%1393
27 Feb 2026Ifop4.0%1393
31 Oct 2025Elabe6.5%1501

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 31

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.