Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
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François Hollande
Photo: Christophe Licoppe / European Union, 2024 / EC - Audiovisual Service, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

François Hollande

PS — PS – Place publique

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

François Hollande, former President of the French Republic (2012–2017), is mentioned as a potential figure for the 2027 presidential election. Although he has not officially declared his candidacy, he undertakes local trips and maintains media visibility, leaving uncertainty about his intentions. Sources report varied reactions to his return to the political forefront, ranging from neutral observation to criticism regarding his political longevity.

Strengths

  • According to Libération (left-wing), his entourage claims that he is not hated and has structured support, such as the group 'Young People with Hollande'. Libération Left · 30 Oct 2026
  • He retains the ability to mobilize locally, as evidenced by his trips to the Vienne department, where he addresses youth and trade unions. lanouvellerepublique.fr · 30 Oct 2026 ; lanouvellerepublique.fr · 29 Oct 2026
  • He maintains significant media and public presence, participating in cultural and political events that sustain his notoriety. Figaro Nautisme · 30 Oct 2026 ; lanouvellerepublique.fr · 30 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • According to Gala, his ambition is undermined by Raphaël Glucksmann's overwhelming victory in the left-wing primary. Gala · 30 Oct 2026
  • According to Le Média, some critics perceive his return as that of an outdated former leader, labeling him a 'political zombie'. Le Média · 29 Oct 2026
  • According to La Dépêche, his strategy of being a 'non-candidate on campaign' is described as advancing in the shadows, suggesting ambiguity about his real intentions. ladepeche.fr · 30 Oct 2026

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
22 Oct 2026Cluster176.5%3000
19 Oct 2026Ifop10.0%1928
15 Oct 2026YouGov9.0%1094
8 Oct 2026Harris Interactive7.0%2004
8 Oct 2026Harris Interactive7.0%2004
29 Sep 2026Ifop8.0%1393
24 Sep 2026Harris Interactive8.0%1974
24 Sep 2026Harris Interactive7.0%1974
21 Sep 2026YouGov4.0%1103
16 Sep 2026Cluster177.5%1943
10 Sep 2026OpinionWay7.0%1001
10 Sep 2026Harris Interactive7.0%2052

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

Second-round head-to-heads

How to read this table. Each line pits two candidates against each other in the second round. The first table gives the score of head-to-head polls; the second, the share of simulations in which the first named wins.

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Head-to-head polls test specific pairs on a given date; the model, for its part, simulates all possible pairs from the first round and vote transfers. The two figures can therefore differ without contradicting each other.

Second-round polls

Hollande – Le Pen41.0% 38.7–43.4 1 polls, latest on 19 Oct

80% interval — Second-round polls : 1st-round score A.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 17

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.