Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
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David Lisnard
Photo: Grégor Sauvagère, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

David Lisnard

NE — Прочие, вне колонок

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and president of the Association of Mayors of France (AMF), left Les Républicains in 2026 to found the party Nouvelle Énergie. He declared himself a candidate for the 2027 presidential election, advocating a liberal and institutional program. His candidacy sparks internal debates on the right regarding the organization of a primary and the use of his local mandates.

Strengths

  • According to L'Opinion (center-right), his project proposes a "liberal shock" and an "institutional big bang" that generates unexpected momentum in polls. L'Opinion Centre-right · 25 Oct 2026
  • Supporters attribute to him a "straight talk" style, as reported by Le Parisien (center). Le Parisien Centre
  • He benefits from the support of Édouard Philippe, who describes him as a "fair" candidate whom he likes very much, according to RMC. RMC · 28 Oct 2026

Weaknesses

  • Several mayors and elected officials, including Marc Fesneau, denounce a "mixing of genres" between his presidency of the AMF and his presidential candidacy, according to 20 Minutes and L'Opinion. 20 Minutes · 29 Oct 2026 ; L'Opinion Centre-right · 28 Oct 2026
  • Le Nouvel Obs (center-left) criticizes his digital campaign, deemed "exasperating," and his political style compared to that of a "chainsaw." Le Nouvel Obs Centre-left · 29 Oct 2026
  • Elected officials from the Millevaches plateau demanded his resignation from the AMF after remarks about "terrorist training camps," according to Le Parisien. Le Parisien Centre

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
22 Oct 2026Cluster178.0%3000
22 Oct 2026OpinionWay6.0%973
22 Oct 2026Ipsos6.5%1500
21 Oct 2026Harris Interactive8.0%2094
21 Oct 2026Harris Interactive7.0%2094
19 Oct 2026Ifop7.0%1928
19 Oct 2026Ifop5.5%1928
16 Oct 2026Elabe6.5%1701
16 Oct 2026Elabe5.5%1701
15 Oct 2026Cluster1717.0%1263
15 Oct 2026Cluster177.0%1263
15 Oct 2026YouGov4.0%1094

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 48

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.