Presidential Election 2027Probabilities of winning, recalculated every day
FRRUEN
Bruno Le Maire
Photo: Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU 2024 from Belgium, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons

Candidates

Bruno Le Maire

RE — Centre / Renaissance

Profile

Experimental · automatically generated (local model) from Wikipedia and the press — may contain errors.

Bruno Le Maire, former Minister of Economy and Finance under President Emmanuel Macron, is mentioned in the context of the 2027 presidential election. He publicly supported Christine Lagarde's potential candidacy and expressed favor for a primary to unite the majority.

Strengths

  • He has extensive government experience, having served as Minister of Economy, Finance, and Recovery. Wikipédia

Weaknesses

  • According to several media outlets, he expressed marked support for Christine Lagarde's candidacy rather than his own, which may raise questions about his own presidential ambitions. Capital.fr · 30 Oct 2026 ; TF1 Info · 30 Oct 2026 ; Le Revenu · 30 Oct 2026 ; Midi Libre · 30 Oct 2026 ; TF1 Info · 30 Oct 2026 ; TF1+ · 30 Oct 2026 ; Le Parisien Centre

Text from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Polls and trend

Dots: one first-round poll. Line: model average. Band: 80% interval.

How to read this chart. Each dot is a published poll (pollster, end date of fieldwork); the line joins the average score estimated by the model. Hover over a dot to see the pollster and sample size.

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Polls from different pollsters are not directly comparable: each has its own method and usual bias, which the model corrects in part. The spread between dots on the same day reflects this diversity as much as statistical uncertainty.

View the figures as a table
DatePollster1st-round scoren =
21 Sep 2026YouGov3.0%1103
18 Apr 2024Ifop14.0%1090
25 Oct 2023Ifop18.0%1179
4 Sep 2023Harris Interactive16.0%2525
7 Apr 2023Harris Interactive16.0%1320
31 Mar 2023Ifop18.0%1105

Probability of winning, day by day

Line: main scenario. Band: spread across poll scenarios (min–max).

Reconstructed curve: the model replayed day by day on the polls already published. Days without a recent poll are missing.

How to read this chart. The line is the candidate's probability of winning over time, the band its uncertainty interval. It is reconstructed day by day on the polls already published.

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A falling probability does not say the candidate is "losing": it says that, given the known polls, a smaller share of simulations has them winning. The model knows neither manifestos nor events, only the numbers.

In the press

What newspapers write is not voter support. None of these figures enters the probability.

How to read this table. The list shows recent articles in which the candidate is mentioned, with headline, outlet and date. Each headline links to the original article.

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The number of mentions measures press attention, not opinion: an article may be favourable, critical or purely factual, and the site does not judge. The outlets tracked cover the whole spectrum; their list is on the "Press" page.

Mentions : 10

What the markets say

No market quotes this candidate.